Using Statistics to Predict Premier League Survival

The Importance of xG and xGA in Football Analytics

Sunderland are one of three promoted teams that will ply their trade in the top division next year. How do the statistics say they'll fare?

For the first time in Premier League history, all three promoted teams have been relegated for the second consecutive year. Many predict this will happen again next season. This is understandable, given the significant gap in quality and financial strength between the Championship and the Premier League's middle class.

However, statistics from the past four Premier League and Championship seasons indicate that one team may defy the odds. Let's break it down.

A Closer Look at Offensive and Defensive Metrics

Anyone interested in football knows that measuring a team's quality requires more than just looking at goals scored and conceded. To gain deeper insights, we turn to Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA). These metrics are derived from sophisticated computer programs that analyze various factors surrounding each shot. These include the distance to goal, shot speed, placement, and defensive presence.

The result is an xG value between 0 and 1. The closer the value is to 1, the higher the probability of scoring. On the other hand, xGA measures the same aspects but focuses on shots conceded by the team.

These metrics provide a clearer picture of a team's performance because they remove the luck factor. A team might win a game after scoring a lucky goal, leaving more deserving teams without points. A famous example is the 2022 Champions League Final, where Liverpool lost to Real Madrid. Despite dominating possession and taking six times as many shots, Liverpool lost after a single goal from Vinicius Junior. This example illustrates how xG and xGA offer fans a rational and scientific way to evaluate matches.

Analyzing Promoted Teams and Relegation Risks

Now, let's return to the central issue: which team is likely to survive relegation? To answer this, I analyzed how promoted teams fared in their Premier League debuts over the past four years. On average, the 12 newly promoted teams registered an xG of 73.9 and an xGA of 44.9, resulting in an average ratio of 1.65 xG/xGA. The following year, their average fell to 0.41 xG/xGA, indicating a drastic drop of 74.96%.

Next, I calculated the minimum xG/xGA ratio necessary for survival. Studying the last four teams to finish 17th in the Premier League revealed that they averaged a ratio of 0.72 xG/xGA.

Applying the Statistics to Current Teams

I applied this 74.96% drop to the three promoted teams: Leeds United, Burnley, and AFC Sunderland. During the 24/25 Championship season, Burnley achieved an xG of 58.4 and an xGA of 38.4, resulting in a ratio of 1.52 xG/xGA. After applying the 74.96% decrease, I predict Burnley will have a ratio of 0.38 xG/xGA next season, falling well below the required 0.72.

Sunderland experienced a similar fate with an xG/xGA ratio of 1.2 last season. This indicates they will likely end up with approximately 0.3 xG/xGA in the 25/26 season. Given the vast gap between 0.38 or 0.3 and the survival threshold of 0.72, it seems almost inevitable that Burnley and Sunderland will return to the Championship.

In contrast, Leeds United's outlook is much more promising. Last season, they recorded an impressive 91.6 xG while conceding only 30.7 xGA, leading to a ratio of 2.98 xG/xGA. Even after considering the standard drop, Leeds is likely to register around 0.75 xG/xGA next year. This figure is 0.03 above the average survival requirement of the past four years, suggesting that Leeds United has a solid chance of remaining in the Premier League.

Factors Influencing Predictions and Final Thoughts

It is important to acknowledge potential inaccuracies that could affect these predictions. The ratio required for survival slightly varies each season. Additionally, a decline in Leeds' form could drastically alter their circumstances. If they dip below the threshold, the Premier League might need to reevaluate its strategies to bridge the ever-deepening gap between elite teams and the rest.

Statistical analysis has become a vital tool in understanding football. The future of promoted teams depends on these metrics, and as we have seen, the numbers offer a more insightful approach to predicting outcomes in the Premier League.

As the season unfolds, we will closely watch how these teams adapt and perform in response to these findings. The question remains—can statistics truly forecast the unpredictable nature of football? Only time will tell.

In conclusion, understanding expected goals and expected goals against is essential for predicting which teams will thrive and which will struggle. Armed with these insights, fans and analysts can enjoy a richer experience of the beautiful game.

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